Despite an unprecedented level of disruption, the container charter market demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025, delivering its strongest performance for non-operating owners (NOOs) outside the post Covid cargo boom years.
As 2026 begins, market conditions remain firm. However, the outlook is increasingly shaped by a wide range of uncertainties that could challenge the current positive momentum.
The most significant downside risk is the anticipated large-scale return of container shipping lines to the Suez Canal and Red Sea route, assuming regional security conditions remain stable. While short-term disruptions such as port congestion and service realignments may temporarily support demand for charter tonnage, the medium to long-term impact is likely to be negative. Shorter sailing distances would reduce ton-mile demand and could render a meaningful portion of the global fleet surplus to requirements.
In the United States, policy uncertainty continues to weigh on market sentiment. Import tariffs remain subject to change, while the USTR Section 301 port fee issue is far from resolved. With the current pause scheduled to expire in November 2026, renewed tensions and market volatility should be expected.
Geopolitical risks also remain elevated. A record number of ongoing or latent conflicts worldwide continues to pose downside risks for container shipping. Escalation in key areas including the Russia-Ukraine war, rising China-Taiwan tensions, increased US interventionism in Latin America, and persistent instability in the Middle East could materially disrupt global trade flows and shipping markets.
On the positive side, cargo volumes may once again outperform expectations. Growth in 2024 and 2025 was robust, and momentum remains particularly strong on trades to Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, Intra-Asia, and, to a lesser extent, Latin America. Sustained volume growth would help absorb capacity, alleviate overcapacity concerns, and underpin freight rates, which staged a notable recovery in the final weeks of 2025 following a prolonged period of decline.
From a supply perspective, fleet growth in 2026 is expected to be manageable. Newbuilding deliveries are forecast at approximately 1.5 million TEU, down from around 2.2 million TEU in 2025. For NOOs, the continued tight availability of charter tonnage across most vessel segments should provide an important buffer against potential market softening.
Looking further ahead, however, the industry faces a more challenging supply outlook. Newbuilding deliveries are projected to rise sharply to approximately 3.0 million TEU in 2027 and 4.4 million TEU in 2028. This wave of capacity will represent a clear reality check for the container shipping market and is likely to test its ability to absorb supply without a material correction (table below from Alphaliner).